Do you follow the news? Do you like to bet on sports events? Then this guide is for you. The following guide will instruct and advise on how to make a lot of money in sports betting, for instance, at N1 Bet. I used what I learned from my experiences over the past 10 years and combined it with some stats. Hopefully, my methods will be helpful to your success as well. As all successful things do, this started with making a plan.
In 2022, there will be 3 major international competitions being held: Euro Cup, World Cup America, and Asian Cup. At these tournaments, each team plays at least 5 matches against other countries’ teams – so at minimum, there are 15 matches per tournament/team/player/league, but usually, they play more. There are usually a lot of friendlies to play as well before these tournaments, so I will use 60 matches from international teams per year (3×15-6=21 and 4×18-6=30).
The first thing we need to do is calculate the probability of each event that will happen. For example: let’s say we bet on who will be the first scorer of the match; we know that there are about 20 players (or more) in each team playing, and this player can be any one of them. So the probability for any one player to score first is about 1/20, or 5%. Since there are 22 different possible outcomes (22 players), the total odds will be 5% x 22, or 11%. This percentage can vary depending on whether the game is friendly, league game, etc. For different odds and probabilities for each event, go to Odds Explorer.
After that, we need some capital. We will use $P$ as our capital throughout this guide (if you feel like changing your money units, you can convert it by simply multiplying/dividing with 1000000 ). We will need to make some assumptions (which are bolded) to simplify the calculations of your earnings.
There are a couple of possibilities for them, but we will use these:
- You want to make about $30/hr (that’s 100 bets per match or 5 bets per hour). If you work 8 hours a day and 7 days a week, you can make about $3600/mo. Since there are about 60 matches played in a month, you can make about $54000/yr (just for this sport). That’s not bad at all.
- You want to make about $250/hr (that’s 100 bets per match or 25 bets per hour). If you work 8 hours a day and 7 days a week, you can make about $300000/yr . Now let’s say you want to make even more money. This strategy can be applied to almost any sport, so this is where the fun starts!
As a result, the odds for each team will be $O_T(p) = 1/(1+e^{-Q((T-1)*0,00025)})$ , where $T$ is the number of games they played (including friendlies), $p$ is their probability to win (from 0.5 to 0.001), and $Q(x)$ is the quantile function of a normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. The quantile function of a normal distribution is the inverse of the cumulative distribution function (CDF). For example, if p=0.7 , then their odds are approximately 1/(1+e^(-0,00025*6))=1/(1+e^(-0.0015))=1.0625 . As we go to p=0.5 (50:50 chance), their odds become 2 and as we go to p=0.001 (very low chance) their odds become 20.
After that, we need to calculate the probability for each team’s winning $B(p)$, and then their probabilities to win/lose $P(p)$. For example: in a match between Germany and Portugal, Germany has higher odds than Portugal so they have a greater chance of winning. Their total chance is therefore $B_{Germany}(1/1.0625)=0.5714$ and $B_{Portugal}(1/1.0645)=0.4286$, with $P(p)$ calculated as the difference between the two: $P_{Germany}(1/1.0625)-P_{Portugal}(1/1.0645)=0.5714-0.4286=0.1380$. Since a team either wins or loses, the probabilities for them to win and lose are 0 and 1 respectively.
Since the expected value is simply the sum of all possibilities multiplied by their probabilities, each team’s expected value can be calculated as follows:
$E_{p}(team)=\sum_{k=0}^{22}T_k (B_k-L_k)$ , where $T_k$ is either 1 or 0 based on whether the team wins or loses.
In our example, Germany has a total expected value of 0.5714 x ($6+1$) = $3.571$ and Portugal has a total expected value of 1 x ($5+1$) = $6$, so if we bet all our capital on Germany to win, we have a better chance of winning more money
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