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Each edition of the FIFA World Cup presents its own unique tales. One of the most interesting ones is that of first-time participants, teams appearing at the tournament for the very first time. For punters, knowing how new teams have historically fared against football heavyweights is essential for getting real value in live betting.
Historical patterns
Throughout modern World Cup history, first-timers have often had it tough against seasoned opponents. In the 2018 tournament, for example, Iceland went against all odds to hold favorites Argentina in their first World Cup game. They failed to make it out of the group stages, though, but they made a big statement.
Historically, debutants barely make it past the group stages or the preliminaries at best. Countries such as Bosnia-Herzegovina (2014) and Saudi Arabia (1994) did not make deep runs in their debuts to the tournament, showing that experience at this level is huge in terms of long-term success.
There are debutants that offer memorable moments though. The unlikely journey of Senegal to the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup on their debut is still considered to be one of the biggest underdog stories in the game.
Similarly, in 1990, Cameroon took part in the campaign and they defeated defending champions Argentina and charged the global audience before losing on penalties in the quarters. These are exceptions, but they demonstrate why bettors should never underrate tactical setup and context to underdog teams. If you’re looking for the best FIFA World Cup 2026 betting tips, these are crucial details you should never ignore.
A deeper field with more first-timers
This year’s edition has been expanded to have 48 teams and there are some which have been confirmed or likely to make their debut. This makes it far more unpredictable than previous editions.
Confirmed debutants are Uzbekistan, Cape Verde, Curacao, and Jordan. Uzbekistan’s growth is a reflection of Asian football, Cape Verde’s almost fairy tale story sees them finishing above Cameroon in African qualifying. Curacao will be the smallest nation ever to qualify for a World Cup finals, and Jordan’s determined group win to seal their spot will be a story to watch.
These teams will have an early test. Rookie entrants are often placed within brackets that match them up with historically stronger teams. Often debutants with no tournament experience struggle to control the pace of the match and also the tactical changes the top teams make. That’s exactly why experience remains a strong predictor of likely outcomes for pre-tournament and match-by-match betting, like point spreads or total goals markets.
Betting angles to watch
There is still a value in defensive underdogs
In the first match, teams are extremely cautious in playing against a team that is much better. This usually points towards sets, structure rather than being free and expansive in attack so lower scoring games. Consequently, more focus is put on defensive shape. Under 2.5 total goals markets are also opportunities to consider, particularly when a debutant handler can focus their tactical intensity on reducing risk.
First goal markets favor experienced sides
When a team scores first in the knockout or group stages, they are more likely to win or draw. Teams playing their first match after a goal conceded during a high-stakes match do not do well in matches. Punters might consider betting on “opponent to score first” as a smart hedge, particularly if the favourite is controlling the first few minutes of the clash.
Asian handicap opportunities
Heavy favorites may not always beat their opponents by a wide margin, particularly when the new entrants are tactically oriented. Although it is not so risky to support elite teams in straight win markets, the Asian handicap markets that are characterized by small spreads are usually more profitable. E.g. A favourite can be set at -1.0 or -1.5 goals, yet experienced punters understand that the win-to-win margins often fall below expectations.
The upset factor
Upsets are very hard to come by but they do occur. The 2002 success of Senegal was due to disciplined defense and efficient counterattacks, including belief, which can be applied by debutants with the right tactical discipline and psychological stand. The same attitude of underdogs involved made the small yet significant campaign of Iceland to become a masterpiece in strategy against such big names, although they did not go far.
In the 2026 World Cup, bettors must keep an eye on play styles, defensive accounts and qualifying qualifications instead of hype. A debutant who earned its place by scraping performance against more formidable continental opponents such as Cape Verde and Uzbekistan could beat the odds better than a team that earned its spot by getting favorable playoffs.
Final word: Bet with context, not romance
In the biggest football tournament, experience is still important, particularly where world giants are playing for the first time against the novices. Measuring the way these debutants will tackle the confrontation of the elite, whether defensively disciplined or structurally naive, will aid the bettors in making wiser choices, particularly in delicate markets such as Asian handicap, first-goal propositions, and total goal lines.